CWT Forecasts Favorable 2010 Meetings, Hotel Pricing

Meeting planners should anticipate favorable pricing continuing in 2010 as an uptick in demand will be slow to gather steam, leaving suppliers again to pursue aggressive sales tactics and marketing initiatives, according to a Carlson Wagonlit Travel North America 2010 pricing forecast released last month. Yet, CWT said planners should expect increases in airfares as planned capacity reductions take effect in the fourth quarter of 2009, oil prices remain relatively stable and demand starts to improve.

The travel management company sees the hotel buyer's market continuing in 2010 as average daily room rate will drop about $10 domestically compared with 2009 rates, taking into account promotional rates and upgrades, according to the forecast.

The transient business travel pricing environment is expected to further drive down meetings costs as hotels and other venues implement discounts and value-add programs.

In addition to pricing declines, meetings spending contraction has left buyers looking at elongated cancellation windows and looser attrition rate clauses in 2010.

Before the downturn, meetings spending was about 2.5 percent to 3 percent of a corporation's revenues, excluding pharmaceutical and healthcare companies, said CWT North America vice president of meetings and events Tony Wagner, who added that the percentage has shrunk to 1.5 percent to 2 percent of a company's revenues.

Wagner predicted some increased meetings activity in 2010 and 2011, but it will take about one year longer for meetings to rebound than business travel to do so, which should yield positive results for planners.

"There will be cost-competitive bids continuing all the way through 2010," he said. "You'll also see clients shopping destinations more. We've had some shift from more glamorous destinations into secondary cities. That will ease a little bit primarily because those glamorous cities will be a little more cost competitive in their proposals."

CWT recommended buyers use 45-day cancellation windows and push for less restrictive penalties on contracts with 30-day cancellation windows. The TMC also suggested negotiating attrition penalties based on a loss of 20 percent to 25 percent of the contracted room block, instead of the traditional 10 percent to 15 percent of attendees.

Published domestic airfares for all classes will increase 3 percent to 5 percent from 2009 levels, CWT predicted. International economy class fares are expected to rise 4 percent to 6 percent and business class fares 5 percent to 8 percent.

CWT also projected pricing relief in average daily car rental and limousine rates, with drops of 1 percent to 3 percent and 3 percent to 5 percent, respectively.

Meanwhile, 62 percent of 50 respondents to a second-quarter CWT survey saw a decrease in internal meetings spending, with 48 percent having more than a 20 percent decline. Cancellations affected two-thirds of respondents whose meetings spending ranged from less than $5 million to more than $50 million annually.

Thirty-two percent said suppliers have become more receptive when addressing pre-existing contract terms and conditions, while 38 percent reported an ability to negotiate more elastic attrition clauses or apply penalties to future business.

Originally published Sept. 21, 2009