GBTA Forecasts 2013 Increase in Group Spending

Last week, hotel consultancy TravelClick reported new “headwinds” for group travel. The Global Business Travel Association (GBTA), however, has a different take: Based on improved business confidence, it has revised upward its 2013 forecast for group spending, it announced yesterday.

According to the latest "GBTA BTI Outlook – United States" report, group spending will increase 6 percent in 2013, up from 5.2 percent growth forecast in the fourth quarter of 2012.

Based in part on group-travel growth, GBTA predicts a 5.1 percent increase in overall business travel spending this year, to $268.5 billion, up from 1.8 percent growth in 2012 and 4.6 percent growth predicted in its fourth-quarter forecast.

“Business confidence is up and the need to compete in the global economy is driving companies to invest in business travel,” GBTA Executive Director and COO Michael W. McCormick said in a statement. “Despite continued political uncertainty in the U.S. and around the world, businesses are beginning to break out of their holding pattern and seek growth more aggressively. While there are still many factors that could hamper the economy again, from the impact of sequestration to rising energy prices, business travel spending is heading in the right direction so far in 2013.”

Included in all “GBTA BTI Outlook” reports is the Business Travel Index (BTI), a headline measure of the current and projected level of business travel in a given market. At the last industry peak in late 2007, the BTI in the United States was 120. When first-quarter results are available, it’s expected that the current BTI will be 121, surpassing the pre-recession high for the first time. By the end of 2013, GBTA predicts, the BTI will be 126.

“As corporate and consumer spending confidence rises, the business travel forecast in the United States is starting to brighten,” said Tad Fordyce, head of global commercial solutions at Visa Inc., which sponsors the “GBTA BTI Outlook.” “We remain optimistic that stronger spending will help 2013 business travel exceed its pre-recession high.”