The 2016 presidential election has been the cause of untold headaches, disagreements, and frustration. Unfortunately, it's also been the cause of a deceleration in business travel growth, according to the GBTA Foundation, the education and research arm of the Global Business Travel Association (GBTA). Today, it released the results of its latest business travel forecast in which it says the election is one of several factors hampering business travel's near-term prospects.
"An uncertain upcoming presidential election, sluggish global expansion, low inflation, weak investment, and choppy geopolitical conditions continue to shackle business travel volume and spending growth," the GBTA Foundation said in a press release accompanying its "GBTA BTI Outlook - United States 2016 Q3" report.
All told, 2016 will see total business travel volume grow just 1 percent while total business travel spending will decline by 0.6 percent, the GBTA Foundation predicts. In 2017, meanwhile, growth will be "better" but "still modest," it says, forecasting that business travel volume and spending will increase 2.7 percent and 3.8 percent, respectively, to 534.8 million trips and $293.1 billion.
The forecast is similarly mixed for group travel: Group travel volume will grow 1.3 percent in 2016 and 2.5 percent in 2017; group travel spending, meanwhile, will decline 2.3 percent this year before accelerating to 5.3 percent next year.
The weakest business travel segment, according to the GBTA Foundation, is international outbound business (IOB) travel. IOB volume and spending will grow just 0.6 percent and 0.1 percent, respectively, in 2016 and 0.6 percent and 1.7 percent, respectively, in 2017.
"Businesses are hiring and paying better wages, but business travel spending is stalled -- something we rarely see happen," said GBTA Executive Director and COO Michael W. McCormick. "The ongoing global uncertainty and added heartburn from a presidential election unlike any we have ever seen are causing many businesses to stay in a holding pattern, taking an extremely cautious wait-and-see approach bordering on paranoia. This begs the question of whether many of these companies will be ready when growth does re-accelerate. To be prepared for lasting business growth, companies must be ready with the newest technologies, the most productive workforce, and the critical customer relationships necessary to take full advantage."
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