Airlines expect to see a 31 percent increase in passengers within the next four years, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), which yesterday released its latest industry forecast showing a projected increase in total airline passengers to 3.91 billion in 2017, up 930 million passengers from 2.98 billion in 2012.
According to IATA’s “Airline Industry Forecast 2013-2017,” growth will be strongest in Asia-Pacific and the Middle East, with an average compound annual growth rate of 6.3 percent and 5.7 percent, respectively.
Routes within or connected to China will be the single largest driver of growth, accounting for 227.4 million additional passengers, or 24 percent of new passengers during the forecast period.
With 677.8 million domestic passengers in 2017, the United States will continue to be the single largest market for domestic passengers, although it will add only 70 million passengers by 2017.
“The fact that the Asia-Pacific region — led by China — and the Middle East will deliver the strongest growth over the forecast period is not surprising. Governments in both areas recognize the value of the connectivity provided by aviation to drive global trade and development,” IATA Director General and CEO Tony Tyler said in a statement. “Similar opportunities exist for developing regions in Africa and Latin America. To reap the benefit, governments in those regions will need to change their view of aviation from a luxury cash cow to a utilitarian powerful draft horse to pull the economy forward.”
Other key findings from IATA’s forecast:
• Of the new passengers, approximately 292 million will be carried on international routes and 638 million on domestic routes.
• With a compound annual growth rate of 10.3 percent, Uzbekistan is the fastest growing market for international passenger traffic.
• United Arab Emirates will add 29.2 million passengers by 2017 — nearly as many as China.
• Brazil will establish itself as the world’s third-largest domestic market, behind the United States and China.
• Among all regions, North America will see the slowest rate of passenger growth, with a compound annual growth rate of 3.6 percent.